There are good reasons to believe that India is at the start of a long period of growth for equities.
An analysis by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has revealed that retail traders remain at the wrong end of the stick when it comes to equity derivatives trading. About 93 per cent of them incurred an average loss of Rs 2 lakh (per trader) during the last three financial years. The new report highlights an increase in the loss-making individual investors in futures and options (F&O) to 91.1 per cent in FY24 compared to 89 per cent in FY22.
Mahindra is coming up with the Thar Roxx. MG Motor India announced a third electric vehicle Windsor. Hyundai and Kia are expected to introduce updated versions of the Alcazar and Carnival respectively.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
There has been a stellar rise for the Indian markets this far in calendar year 2021 (CY21) with the S&P BSE Sensex surging over 19 per cent. The gain in mid-and small-cap indices on the BSE has been sharper with both these indexes surging around 38 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively during this period. Rampant spread of Covid pandemic's Delta variant and the ensuing lockdown and mobility curbs across India, rising prices key commodities, including crude oil and its impact on inflation, possibility of tightening of policy stance by major global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) have been some of the key headwinds that the markets successfully negotiated during this period.
"Less than two week back, we faced a set of allegations from the US about compliance practices. This is not the first time we have faced such challenges. What I can tell you is that every attack makes us stronger," he said addressing the 51st Gems and Jewellery Award in Jaipur.
The index rising for the fourth straight session surged 564 points.
Equity mutual funds attracted an all-time high net inflow of Rs 28,463 crore in March, on continued interest by retail and HNI investors, who used market correction as a good buying opportunity.
However, experts caution that investors should not expect the big returns they got from the sector between March and September 2020.
'Macro headwinds are rising for Indian equities in the form of rising commodity prices, especially oil, depreciating rupee, fiscal challenges, election-related uncertainty and upside risks to inflation'
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
Had you invested Rs 10,000 each in JSW Steel, Titan Company and Bajaj Finance 20 years ago, when they were just penny stocks (trading below Rs 10), you would have become a millionaire by now.
JP Morgan has reiterated its negative stance on Indian information technology (IT) services and downgraded the sector to underweight (neutral earlier post Q4-FY23 numbers), as it believes the overall demand environment for the sector still remains weak. The research firm expects most companies in the sector to disappoint while announcing their first quarter numbers for the current fiscal (Q1-FY24). Among stocks, it has placed Infosys, TCS, MphasiS in its 'negative catalyst watch'.
'The Paris Olympics has once again blessed the Indian sports marketing landscape with fresh faces and promises.' 'Expect at least one biopic.'
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
The other prominent gainers were Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro. Bajaj Finserv, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
The mutual fund (MF) industry had an action-packed 2023 as it tackled the scrapping of tax benefits for debt fund investors and surging flows into equity funds.
Among the prominent gainers on the Sensex chart were Bajaj Finance, Bajaj FinServ, ICICI Bank, Axis bank, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank and HDFC Bank -- rising as much as 3.50 per cent. NSE Nifty soared 271.65 points to settle at 17,625.70.
'...which is possible through flexicap and multicap funds.' 'The latter has a better balance between large, mid and smallcap stocks.'
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
'IPOs have performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase in average ticket size from Rs 800 crore in the last financial year to around Rs 1,300 crore in this financial year.'
ICICI Bank, HUL, HDFC Bank, M&M, Ultra Cement, IndusInd Bank and Tech Mahindra were among the losers in the Sensex pack. NSE Nifty slipped 13.95 points to 17,355.30.
'Markets could face uncertainty in the short to medium term.' 'It would be prudent to invest in alternative asset classes, especially debt, for about a year.' 'Bank fixed deposits are offering rates as high as 9 per cent per annum and these can be used as a great hedging tool until equity markets stabilise.'
Investors redeem units worth Rs 2,000 crore in October.
Credit outstanding to the housing sector rose by nearly Rs 10 lakh crore in the last two fiscals to reach a record Rs 27.23 lakh crore in March this year, according to RBI's data on 'Sectoral Deployment of Bank Credit'. Experts from banking and real estate sectors attributed this growth in housing credit outstanding to a strong revival in the residential property market post-COVID pandemic on pent-up demand. According to the data of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on sectoral deployment of bank credit for March 2024, the credit outstanding to the housing (including priority sector housing') stood at Rs 27,22,720 crore in March 2024, up from Rs 19,88,532 crore in March 2023, and Rs 17,26,697 crore in March 2022.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
Titan was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 3.5 per cent, followed by Kotak Bank, SBI, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, HUL, Axis Bank and Sun Pharma. On the other hand, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, PowerGrid and Infosys were the laggards.
Very gradual fiscal consolidation glide path with looser-than-expected fiscal policy; good quality spending mix and reasonable assumption on fiscal math; and focus on privatisation, asset monetisation and long-term funding for infrastructure investments, according to Morgan Stanley, are the three key themes from the Budget 2021.
India's defence sector presents an ordering opportunity worth $138 billion between fiscal years 2023-24 (FY24) and FY32, said a latest note by Nomura, which has initiated coverage on two defence-related players - Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) and Bharat Electronics (BEL) - with a 'buy' rating. The research and broking house sees an upside potential of 28 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively in these two stocks from the current levels.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
Among major Sensex movers, ITC rose the most by 1.70 per cent, Wipro by 1.43 per cent, Tech Mahindra by 1.36 per cent and Nestle India by 1.27 per cent. Other gainers included HCL Tech, Asian Paints and Reliance. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel traded with a loss of up to 0.82 per cent.
Lump sum investments in equity and hybrid schemes of mutual funds (MFs) declined to Rs 17,900 crore in October - the lowest since January 2021. The fall in lump sum investments comes even as flows through systematic investment plans (SIPs) rose to a new all-time high of Rs 13,000 crore in October. The latest lump sum tally is just a third of the peak inflow of Rs 49,700 crore in July 2021.
Shares of low-cost airline IndiGo hit record high on the bourses soon after reports of pilot crisis at Vistara emerged. The development also saw airfares surge by around 25 per cent on select routes. Shares of IndiGo hit a lifetime high of ~3,68.5 on April 2, 2024, and has gained 2.4 per cent on the bourses in April.
'The main worry is lots of new investors coming into the markets in order to make a quick buck/easy money.' 'Those things are happening again and have happened in the past as well.' 'All that has led to problems.' 'We are not there yet, but will get there eventually.'
IT and ITeS companies accounted for $28.1 billion of the total investment pie during the first nine months of 2021.
Fundraising via the initial public offering (IPO) route by companies may touch Rs 1 trillion in financial year 2024-25 (FY25), according to a recent note by Pantomath Group - a mid-market investment bank. During the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), 76 companies tapped the markets through mainboard IPOs, Pantomath said, raising nearly Rs 62,862 crore. This is a 21 per cent rise compared to FY23, the note added.
The combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies hit an all-time high of Rs 343.48 lakh crore on Monday, amid a rally in equities after the BJP registered victory in assembly polls in three Hindi heartland states. Following the sharp uptick in the market, investors became richer by over Rs 5.81 lakh crore on Monday. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 1,383.93 points, or 2.05 per cent, to close at a lifetime high of 68,865.12.
HCL Tech was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 3 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Wipro, NTPC and Titan. Nifty advanced 187.05 points to 16,801.25.
Shares of Jet Airways surged 16 per cent to close at Rs 505.7 on Friday on speculation that Etihad Airways might buy 24 per cent in the company.
Equity investors became richer by Rs 2.4 lakh crore as key benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty scaled new peaks in morning trade on Tuesday, amid persistent foreign fund inflows. Analysts said foreign institutional investors have reversed their selling strategy and have been consistent buyers during the last seven days. This momentum is a reflection of institutional confidence in the Indian market, they said.
